Paladins on the Decline

But first, let's examine some "classic" MMO theory:

MMO's have frequently designed and balanced classes around the "holy trinity" of roles: healing, tanking, and dealing damage. With regard to the last category, actual implementation has generally divided it into sub-roles of melee vs. ranged DPS - something that is irrelevant to our discussion here.

How these roles affect class popularity, I propose, depends (at least in part) on the content focus of a particular game. I say in part, because if you examine class variety (and were to poll a playerbase, I venture), damage-dealing still tends to be favored by at least a plurality (if not a majority) of players. I was planning on elaborating on this notion, but found myself being entirely too long-winded. The point of it all can be boiled down the following formulae:

Fun > Work

Healing = Work = -1 (health bar whack-a-mole sucks supreme)
Tanking = Work = 0 (at least tanks can focus primarily on the action and not UI elements)
Damage = Fun = 1

Now we're getting somewhere. Let's take it further, and break down the current WoW classes into their "role" elements:

Hunter = Damage = 1
Mage = Damage = 1
Rogue = Damage = 1
Warlock = Damage = 1
Warrior = Tanking + Damage = 1 + 0 = 1 (with a Work penalty)
Priest = Healing + Damage = 1 + -1 = 0
Druid = Healing + Tanking + Damage = -1 + 0 + 1 = 0
Shaman = Healing + Damage = -1 + 1 = 0
Paladin = Healing + Tanking = -1 + 0 = -1

Many are going to argue with me, pointing out things like "but I like healing/tanking" or "dealing damage can be work too." I would say that they're either a statistical outlier or haven't walked far enough in the shoes of a class with another role to understand. Also bear in mind that games with some to a great deal of PvP content generally exhibit an even greater trend toward broadly damage-capable classes. Everyone can kill something eventually. PvP, however, is all about kill or be killed - situations in which time is usually precious.

Now let's bring in the topic title.

Browsing the class trend graphs can be eye-opening. The Paladin in particular seems to be on the general decline - more so than other classes.

Here as seen on the Alliance side for all realms, Paladins stand as the median in popularity, but reflect a steady decline trend matched only by the Shaman class. Other classes, by comparison, seem to be holding in their popularity (if you smooth out the periodic fluctuations).

On the Horde side of things for all realms, Paladins are not only exhibiting the steepest decline but have also dropped two standings to the position of 2nd least popular class (most recently overtaken by the Shamans). Of the general increase trend seen in late May, the Paladin "upsurge" appears to be the least-steep of all the classes.

As holder of a BA in Political Science, with some education in the realm of statistics, it would be ingenuous of me to attach causality for this trend to any one particular factor or group of factors. If I were to venture a guess, though, I'd say that WoW gamers are increasingly dissatisfied playing "the healer-tank hybrid." There's a reason why so much of the LFG spam ends in "need tank/healer." Facilitating others' fun gets real old real fast. It's no wonder, then, why posts like this keep getting discussed and bumped. Blizzard's Paladin sucks, and nobody wants a repeat. There, I said it.

If I feel like it, I'll compose a follow-up post in the next week or so in which I discuss how EAMythic seems to be challenging the orthodox reverence for the "work" roles - both by making them more fun and lowering their importance, making room for everyone to have a piece of the damage pie.